Promulgated by the national bureau of statistics and, in March 2012, the residents' consumption of the general price level (CPI) rose 3.6% year-on-year, a rebound 0.4% in February. Since July of last year peaked reverse, the CPI year-on-year rise has been respectively in January and march appeared two rallies, and rebound efforts are beating market expectations. Many analysis thinks, although the CPI rebound will not change again in the second quarter of the overall price level back big trend, but it explained the current price increases pressure not to eliminate and control policy is still not relax. Especially the 3.6% increase let only after a supportive months will appear again, lead to market to the future interest rate may cut expected greatly fell back.
Careful not eliminate inflationary pressure
If the CPI rebound in January is mainly caused by the Spring Festival factors, not enough to cause the attention of people of words, the march issue of the case is more serious, food prices and the food price also appeared to rebound.
Peace securities (the Po) fixed income of vise general manager shi lei (the Po) to the economic reference news reporter said, march CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, removed after seasonal factors were nearly 1%, explain the price rise significantly in March. Which food prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month, is the main reason for the CPI rebound. From the historical figures, 2001 to 2011 the 11 years, food prices in March 2004, all except the annulus falls, the average lost about 1.2%, the rise in food prices is worth to pay close attention to more projects.
In march the food prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month, also higher than market expectations, and obviously higher than the same period over the level. "We believe that the march of the CPI than expected rebound alarmed. On the one hand, food prices and the food price rises situation at present; on the other hand, from food items, the weight of the larger varieties see also appeared general goes up the situation, meat, vegetables, aquatic products and food prices are bigger, especially XianCai and aquatic products year-on-year growth rebound in March 14 and respectively 3.9% in April. We expect CPI growth will remain in the 3.5% to 3.6%, the CPI is near the mean of pressure. Raised" Shi lei said.
Day hong fund senior strategy analysts LiuJiaZhang said, march beyond the obvious CPI increase the market had expected, vegetable prices is considered to be promoting march the important reason for the CPI increase. With CPI QiaoWei factors than 0.2% rise last month, 3.6% is still in the CPI website can withstand range, but on March 20 raised prices of refined petroleum products for the medium and long term influence to CPI to consider. Although CPI items and the spare parts of automobile fuel price index than weight of is not high, but oil prices will directly influence the uplink the various sectors of the logistics cost, a few months after will also through the agricultural products (10.81, 0.00, 0.00%) transportation, fertilizer price etc revealed. Considering the market has already entered the commencement season, and the product oil rise in the next few months the influence of the CPI trend began to appear. In short,
Inflation pressure still did not eliminate, still need to be cautious.
"Looking forward to the future for months, China's inflation will remain at 4% in the first half of the policy goals, but overall inflation pressure below you still defenses." Bank of Australia in the greater China region economic research director LiuLiGang said. He gives two reasons. First, China will in this year of large-scale public utilities (1712.987, 0.00, 0.00%) product price forming mechanism reform, tax reform will also further deepening, the ladder of all over the price of electricity and water price pricing scheme is steady steps out, this means that China will in the future for a long time face price rise the pressure. Secondly, the second round of price "effect is obvious, in the cooking oil prices rise, many commodity prices also begins to appear rise, this suggests that many companies began to use" administrative regulation "relatively loose opportunity, to still owe the last round of inflation" price account ".
Second quarter trend trend back don't change
But even if the march issue of the CPI data on prices lead to market the resilience of the worry that increase, but organization still thinks generally, at least in the second quarter, the price increase is still big trend back.
The sasac research center HuChi researchers think, march turned up CPI, reflect the complexity of the economic operation side, but belong to of economic operation of the normal fluctuations. CPI rose again the cause is still as before, are rising food prices push. In the present economic fundamentals, overall, this year the basic trend CPI still no change.
Agricultural bank of China (2.63, 0.00, 0.00%) strategic planning macro economic and financial research, deputy director of FuBing out of the economic reference news reporter said, will raise oil prices mixed effects, the recent price rise vegetables is larger, the cause of inflation worries about the market rise again. But in the background of the slowing economy, as the weather warms up, vegetable prices are expected to fall faster appear, causes the CPI growth dropped, commodity prices fall trend will further clear.
The bank of China (3.01, 0.00, 0.00%) strategy development, senior economist ZhouJingTong forecast, the prices will continue in China in the second quarter dropped trend, the CPI rose 3.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, up 3% in the second quarter. He believes that the current suppression of rising prices favorable factors include: the economic slowdown; Since last year the state to take transportation cost, increasing agricultural subsidies, reducing taxation policies in the effects of this year will continue to show; Factory-gate prices dropped significantly, for the consumer price in the transmission of pressure greatly decreased; QiaoWei factors obviously narrow, from quarter of 2.3% in the second quarter to 1.7% of the reduced.
Beijing leading international financial information, the chief economist DongXianAn (the Po) also think: "in the second quarter of this year the probability of low inflation higher." And he said, from the ministry of agriculture, ministry of commerce of the food price to see a week caliber, benefit from meat continued to drop, since march food prices first increased and then drop annulus. Vegetable prices fell after the first rise, food, eggs and cooking oil relatively stable. From the bureau of statistics caliber perspective, the food price increase year-on-year fall to 1.9% at the end ,Recent remain near 1.6%, and last year the average monthly is located in the first 11 a 2% to 3% range
But, after the second quarter had need further observation. LiuLiGang think, because utilities product price reform and "second round of price" effect of existence, and many of the recent economic entity activities began to appear better data, "China's inflationary pressure may be rising again in the second half, inflation may easily in the second half of 4%. Breakthrough"
Affect the market expected to cut interest rates fall
With CPI rebound again, the market even though still think this month may cut the deposit reserve rate, but at the end of the second quarter may cut to interest rate expectations greatly fell back.
"In the march issue of the inflation data, after the announcement of China's real interest rates also has turned negative, this is largely dismissed for China's central bank rate cut market expectations." LiuLiGang said.
Beijing university assistant principal HuangGuiTian Suggestions, in view of the pressure on price is still not eliminate and growth is don't reduce pressure, macro control policies should be with be give priority to, especially in monetary policy, the deposit reserve rate cut to moderate, interest rates should be very careful.
He told the economic reference news reporter said, so far, China's rising prices are still rising structural, are the main agricultural products in high prices. Main show is agricultural prices take turns to rise, recently appeared again scallions price rise quickly. But if it is full of inflation, it should be all kinds of products not only is rising waves rise of agricultural products. Management main prices fiscal policy and monetary policy two kinds of means, relatively speaking, monetary policy tend to total amount control, fiscal policy but can better adjust structure. Last year the total amount control prices mainly adopts control measures. From the result, CPI increase more than 5% year still, it deserves reflection.
HuangGuiTian said, in China's economic development has not occurred fundamental changes to the way, financial repression system background long-term exist, and the ratio of the GDP of the M2 was higher in specific economic development stage of requirements, the economy of the money supply will always be a relative abundance, this is not to rely on short-term policy can be done, must be in long-term accelerate the reform of the financial system. From the government target to see, ever is to guarantee the rise in prices and 3% less than, last year up to 4%. In fact in recent years, would be a case of prices or keep in between 4% to 5% is normal.
Prices or higher will affect the quality of life of quite a number of people, the government should take corresponding countermeasures. Now that the current prices are still rising structural characteristics, that is about to consider the reasons of the main may not money flood, but supply and poor circulation system. So the current price stability is first to strengthen the market management. Include strengthening of circulation management, to reduce circulation taxes, etc. More important, it attracted market hoarding behavior, especially in the necessaries of life, to strengthen the management of hype behavior. The second thing is to strengthen financial subsidies. Subsidies can be divided into production links subsidies, circulation link subsidies, consumptive link subsidies three parts. The first two main is to increase supply, can be in the short term of low income guarantee quality of life but more down.
The use of monetary policy should be cautious. HuangGuiTian said, since the outbreak of the international financial crisis, world's macro control policies are with the growth is given priority to, China also should not be an exception. This year is very fundamental key policy shall conform to this situation, the key is to don't change easily. Control policy to keep continuity and the market mechanism to play as much as possible of the self adjusting function. Specifically, in monetary policy, the deposit reserve rate can moderate adjustment, but the market interest rates is unfavorable light still. Because the two policy tools to economic role is different. The current economic entity is mainly credit difficult, slashing the bank deposit must can increase the money supply, helps to reduce the financing cost problem enterprise high. But just cut bank interest rate cut interest rates, to the enterprise to get financing to little effect on the actual interest rate, will be difficult to help entity economy through.
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