Weak imports cause economic slowdown concerns

Although march and quarter both to foreign trade surplus, but not because of remarkable recovery exports, but because of the strong growth momentum import no longer.



The customs administration announced yesterday the import and export data show that march trade surplus of $5.35 billion, $31.49 billion in February by the history of the biggest deficit into surplus, to a far higher than market expectations of $3.2 billion deficit; And cumulative trade surplus in the first quarter and $670 million in the first quarter of last year accumulative total trade deficit of $1.02 billion a reversal.

But turn surplus doesn't mean that deficit export regain vitality, march year-on-year increase exports only 8.9%, although higher than market expectations of 7.0%, but is still less than 18.4% of the last month; The key is to import year-on-year growth of 36.9% from last month dropped from 5.3% to. 1 to November last year, the year-on-year rate of increase imports most maintain at 20% or more, but dropped to 11.8% in December, January appear 15.3% of negative growth.

Yesterday evening, people familiar with the media revealed to have, given the import growth slowed sharply and maintain the reality of a weak export growth, the international monetary fund (the Po) on April 17, by the world economic outlook, the corrected version of the lower their sharply on China's current account surplus of the expected long-term, at present, the expectations of 7% of GDP.

From the micro level of the information received by exports sustained pressure situation. "The first financial daily (the Po)" yesterday interview export enterprises says, because for foreign demand slump enterprises have the export strategy adjustment.

And our newspaper interview some market personage thinks, because last year a trade deficit in the first quarter, the first quarter of this year's trade surplus means that the contribution of net exports to GDP will full member, also means that is expected to the GDP data Friday may be higher than market expectations.

At the same time, the import growth slowed sharply that whether the domestic demand for shrinking, also be the market the focus of the discussion.

Enterprise long-term still partial pessimistic

Chinese policymakers in 2012 for China's foreign trade growth expectations for the overall 10%, the ministry of commerce minister Chen deming has pointed out during the sessions, and to achieve this goal, also need to hard work.

From the data published yesterday, also can see the whole picture of the world economic recovery. In march, China's exports to Europe had dropped 3.1% year-on-year, and speed up to 14% of the beauty, and the economic flexibility to remain consistent.

The general administration of customs of comprehensive statistics of priests ZhengYueSheng media said, the international market demand weak is effect on our country's exports the main factors, among which the first quarter to's largest trading partner in the eu exports fell 1.8%, worth attention.

And from China's traditional export province division to see, also can obviously feel this kind of slide chill, the first year-on-year growth of strong in single digits around.

Quarter, guangdong foreign trade import and export value rose by only 4.3%. Over the same period, Beijing and Shanghai, jiangsu province import and export value growth of 0.3%, respectively, of 12.3% and 3.8%. The four provinces often can account for half of the import and export of our country's whole mountain.

Export data not satisfactory, which confirm the foreign trade enterprises to export the whole situation this year pessimistic projections.

"We are from the second half of last year began to experience the first quarter of this year, sales fell and the same period last year and more than a 20% decline or so." The world's largest insurance powder production factory and the largest exporter of insurance powder willow group guangdong China chemical Co., LTD. Sales vice manager to our newspaper points out that YangXiaoChuan yesterday.

"Last year we export volume is 70000 tons, is already actively to cut this year 60000 tons."

His pressure comes from two aspects, the external economic environment is bad, make Europe and America newsprint industry, and for the textile printing and dyeing traditional demand falling; And the domestic Labour costs continue to improve and the improvement of environmental protection industry safety standards, also make the overall cost began to rise.

This is a typical general trade enterprise, main client is newsprint and textile dyeing and printing industry, chemical industry, almost all occupied the China insurance powder exports to Europe had share. More than half the company products export, sale the rest; In the export market, accounting for more than half the European and American market, and this year the European market probably accounted for 10% of the share.

As a leading enterprise of gree (the Po) electrical Co., LTD of overseas sales company general manager XiaoYouYuan maximum pressure, or from the debt crisis.

He pointed out that, although the amount of exports have whole quarter 10% ~ 15% growth, annual sales also can reach more than 10% of the growth (in the past two years is 50%). But the overall air conditioning industry in 2012 but will have to slide.

"Range can't say big diving, but personally I also estimated to have a 10% or so, not very optimistic." He said, "the debt crisis of the big influence is still, in the first quarter, only about 20% ~ 30% gree decline to the European market, export growth has fallen to 5% ~ 8%, more than the same period last down 3 to 4%."

For foreign demand of market, the two firms have found their of policy measures.

YangXiaoChuan pointed out that, in the face of rising cost of domestic pressure after, compared with last year, the average price of the products have a 30% ~ 50% of ascension. In this case, can only give up the past for each market share of the excessive pursue, to spend more energy in can bring more profit in the high-end market.

"The Asian market share while still maintaining in the past a share of 45%, but customers structure changes, for product quality request high, such as we focus on the Asian region to the polycarbonate following apple production factory, takes our products." He said, "because if profits is too low, we can meet wage growth, as well as to the workers of environmental equipment more investment."

And the gree electric appliances (21.26, 0.00, 0.00%) is adjusted the whole layout overseas markets expected this year, the United States export market will grow 80% ~ 90% number. And for southeast Asian countries export quantity can be increased by 20% ~ 30%, to offset other market adverse impact.

Although compared with the same period last year growth has eased, but from a historical experience look, the first quarter is often foreign trade growth throughout the year the low level of the time. According to department of foreign trade company priests WangShouWen said, usually every year, the second quarter is our country foreign trade order peak, shipment peak appear in the third quarter. Including him more than the industry of our country to realize annual 10% of foreign trade import and export growth target optimistic

Economic slowdown concerns

In fact, and export or net exports to China's economic impact is also important, from last year, the outside world has been in close attention to China's trade data import of condition, to determine whether China's economy slowing further, and even domestic demand to atrophy.

With such concern, a few months before this year's import greatly lower than expected, been some economists judgment for China's economic domestic demand shrinking precursor.

Bank of Australia in the greater China region economic research director LiuLiGang pointed out, Chinese imports began with domestic demand more relevant, from the normal trade import and processing trade of imports scale, since 2007, has been a massive beyond ordinary trade processing trade imports, this shows that Chinese imports to begin to turn the growth of domestic demand, this also with China gradually develop economic structure transformation of highly correlated, if this trend continued, China's import growth will still maintained a fast growth, and higher than export growth. This will also cause the overall trade surplus to fall.

Bank of America merrill lynch, chief economist LiuTing have argued that the real situation and not outside to guess the so bad. He points out that to our reporter, from data on look, some low value-added processing trade imports have in weakness, from 1 ~ 2 month 2.4% year-on-year drop to 0.7%. Second, such as iron ore such commodity prices in down inflation; In addition, because of the rise in the price of oil, crude oil imports of growth is slowing.

Goldman sachs macro economists SongYu is further points out, the day before the CPI data released higher than market expectations, in the long run or even the possibility of loose policy. "Although we believe, for China's policy makers, relative to the possible inflationary pressures, economic slowdown in is more important consideration, because and 1 ~ 2 month than inflation, still in descending interval."

He thinks that, even if to relax, also is the next few months to execute it.

LiuLiGang also think, with the recent ticket and repurchase expire is central large quantities, at the same time, China's commercial Banks in March absorbs a large number of deposit, the central bank may be delayed deposit rate cut must to may or June.