Policy presetters fine-tuning strength or increase

The general administration of customs 10,, according to figures released on March that month, China's import and export value is 325.97 billion us dollars, up 7.1%. Export of 165.66 billion us dollars, up 8.9%; Imported 160.31 billion us dollars, up 5.3%; Monthly trade surplus of $5.35 billion. 1-march, China's total trade surplus of $670 million.

 

Analysts said, march trading obtained the $5.35 billion surplus, and widely expected is the trade deficit, the contrast is mainly imports is far lower than the expected the cause. Slowing imports showed weak domestic demand in China. Because of the small and medium-sized enterprises face financial pressure and domestic market for vibration fatigue, second quarter is expected to increase strength or fine-tuning presetters policy, reduce the deposit reserve rate is expected increase apparently.

 

Slowing imports unexpectedly

 

Statistics show that the 3 month imports in China is less than 1 to 2 months accumulative increase the rate of growth of 7.7%.

 

China international economic exchange center, a researcher at the royal army said, march surplus and prospective emergence contrast is the main reason of the slowing imports unexpectedly, especially in March energy and international commodity prices to drop all the appear this kind of contrast, display domestic investment and consumption appeared slow.

 

Shenyin &wanguo (the Po) chief macro-economic analyst LiHuiYong that, along with hysteresis and order the expected future orders are not good, march to import less than expected, affect domestic consumption demand.

 

The ministry of commerce, a researcher at the institute of foreign trade LiJian think, since the second half of last year, the state to strengthen and other large investment real estate project macro regulation and control effect is beginning to show in the quarter, lead to domestic investment in the commodity import prices eased back cases appeared slow, a slight decrease in domestic demand, which imports declined.

 

The data shows, in imported goods, quarter, China imported 190 million tons of iron, increased by 6%, the average price per ton for imported us $137.1, down 13.4%; Soybean (4695, 57.00, 1.20%) 13.33 million tons, increased by 21.6%, the average price per ton for imported us $525.7, down 8.2%.

 

Foreign trade throughout the year before or after low high

 

Analysts believe that, in the second quarter of foreign trade situation will be good in the quarter, foreign trade or present throughout the year before after the trend of the high low.

The national development and reform commission secretary general ZhangYanSheng academic committee that because of the quarter processing trade appear bigger surplus, general trade deficit has been larger, the second quarter and annual trade balance development can bring certain adverse impact. The royal army think, these days the economy in the second quarter, still can present recovery, China's export and import will appear rebound, the second quarter are expected to foreign trade situation will be better than quarter, China's foreign trade will still maintain small surplus.

In the second quarter, on the monetary presetters fine-tuning range, money supply and credit data will be obvious to relax, from the time, the recent may face the deposit reserve rate cut sensitive period. In the RMB exchange rate fluctuations, the appreciation of the renminbi will not increase is expected to space. Tax cuts will continue to promote structural.

 

LiHuiYong said, due to base effects, second quarter is expected to import and export will be slightly rebounded, foreign trade situation will be better. Domestic policy preset is expected to fine-tune the strength will increase, main is to increase financial expenditure strength, speed up both projects, such as security room, high iron project start and increase the credit investment and to reduce the deposit reserve rate measures, etc.