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21, institute of ministry of commerce issued the 2012 consumer market development report shows, consumption growth this year will remain in the faster interval, growth is expected to reach 15% or so, consumption to GDP will surpass the contribution of investment, in nearly 10 years later for the first time become the first pulling power economic growth. Consumption, investment and export coordination pull's model of economic growth will be preliminary form.
From the concrete field to see, furniture, construction and decoration materials general up consumption, consumption growth become new window. At the same time, expand consumption policy exist innovation space, the energy conservation, environmental protection, the independent brand, furniture decorate building materials and services in the market, or will have policies to encourage.
There is, however, experts don't approve of the ministry of commerce research institute's point of view, think consumption in the short term became the first engine is not possible. At present the most main growth momentum is still investment.
Consumption is expected to increase this year differences into the first pulling power?
21, institute of ministry of commerce issued the 2012 consumer market development report "(hereinafter referred to as the" report "), as had been the ministry of commerce decision-making reference for the internal report, this also is first published.
"Consumer will be in nearly 10 years of economic growth for the first time become the first pulling power, consumption growth will remain in the faster interval." The report points out, although the main pulling power consumption growth this year is weakened, but prices fall and the expected rate of spending growth will produce results, total spending growth will continue 2011 year-on-year growth trend of oil consumption, to 15% or so.
"The 15% and is not a policy goal, but we combined with a variety of factors, after the data model analysis out can be realized that a growth." The report's main authors of the institute of economic research, the ministry of commerce consumption, deputy director of the ZhaoPing (the Po) special said.
At the same time, the report pointed out that this year of consumption, investment and net exports this "three carriages" status in the national economy will have major change, consumption to GDP will surpass the contribution of investment, become the first pulling power economic growth, "the China's national economic and social development" 1025 "planning the outline for the determination of the consumption, investment and export coordination of economic growth mode will pull initial shape.
According to statistics, in 2011 China's total capital formation of GDP growth accounted for 54.2%, down 2.4% from the previous year, the goods and service net exports to GDP growth is the contribution rate of 5.8%, down 15% from the previous year, and the final consumption to GDP growth for the contribution rate of 51.6%, a 17.4% increase from the previous year, spending contribution investment contribution rate 2.6% lower than only.
This year's government work report clearly, expanding domestic demand especially consumption demand is our country economy the smooth and quick development of long-term the fundamental standpoint, it is the key work of this year, we should focus on expanding consumer demand.
The ministry of commerce HuoJianGuo academy, of the economic reference news reporter said, so far, consumption, investment and net exports, these three aspects are facing pressure. Investment has always kept the medium level is forecast to increase annual investment growth will be around 25%. Foreign trade situation is more serious, and has entered into the digit growth, exports sustained attention back trigger, predicts that as external markets rose and firm the policy of expanding exports, the second half of export would be improved, the whole year should be able to achieve the growth of more than 10%. And from a consumer perspective, at present although have dropped the situation, but overall situation optimistic, if improve income level, optimizing consumption environment, and a series of measures implementation up, plus urbanization and industrialization promotion, is expected to start new consumer enthusiasm.
But there are also view said, consumption become a real economic growth is still pulling power first need more time. The pioneer circulation productivity center senior analyst LiangHuanLei to the economic reference news reporter said, now investment and exports faced with a certain difficulties, consumption is the role of emerges. From the point of view of a big country, consumer also should be the primary drive economic strength. But I'm afraid it's hard to the qualitative as the first pulling power.
Beijing industry and commerce university (the Po) trade the dean in thy billows accept the economic reference newspaper reporter to interview also said that while consumption growth faster, but a short time also can't become China economy first engine, expected investment will remain the main drive economic power.
Power consumption ability and consumption will improve
However, from now and years ago two months of data to see, consumption growth is not optimistic, especially considering the Spring Festival is often consumption season this factor. According to the national bureau of statistics, 1 to 2 months, social total retail sales of consumer goods is 3.3669 trillion yuan, up by 14.7%, after adjusting for inflation, a real increase of 10.8%, respectively, compared with the same period last year slowdown in 1.1 and 0.5%. The ministry of commerce of the 3000 monitoring key retail enterprise sales growth of 8.3%, slowing to 9.7% more than the same period last year.
To this, ZhaoPing also said, China's domestic economic growth fall and the grim situation of employment factors will make the consumption growth exists many uncertainties. However, the price level fall and the average per capita income level enhancement as well as the country continues to on the introduction of the expanding consumer policy, has a way of weakening the influence of unfavorable factors.
ZhaoPing to our reporter says, overall, this year the main power consumption growth come from two aspects, one is the consumption of the ability. Wages rise by migrant workers, the minimum wage standard and improve the results, the whole year per capita disposable income will still maintained a fast growth, this boost consumption ability. 2 it is the willingness to consume ascension. As inflation, be suppressed, house prices is effectively controlled, constantly improve the consumption environment, in 2012 China's consumer satisfaction index, the expectations index and confidence are to be is expected to be strong.
From the concrete field to see, furniture, construction and decoration materials general up consumption, as a consumer new luminescent spot. In 2011, the real estate market in strict regulation and not expand consumption policy support, furniture, construction and decoration materials goods consumption still keep a high growth, show strong endogenous growth momentum. Among them, the annual furniture kind retail sales is 118.1 billion yuan, the growth rate of 32.8%, higher than the average total retail sales growth of 15.7%; Annual construction and decoration materials kind of retail sales reached 140 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 30.1%, higher than the average total retail sales growth of 13%.
In 2012, the country's new construction guarantee room 7 million sets. Among them, 4 million sets will be built at the end of the year, for furniture, construction and
Limit to buy three lines of city housing demand will drive the rigid furniture, construction and decoration materials consumption scale growth potential gradually released. Limit purchase policy by influencing the city a line, in the car, home appliance products on the policy of expanding accelerated after upgrading under, furniture, construction and decoration materials goods consumption could become an important carrier of the consumption structure upgrade. Expect 2012 furniture, construction and decoration materials consumption growth will reach 30% or so, become the new luminescent spot consumption growth.
Policy is creating more force promoting consumption ministries of New Deal
Recently, many ministries are made to promote new force of the consumption stimulate consumption especially policy, from the society of the close attention. The ministry of commerce minister Chen deming was in January, said it would "summary to the country and to old change home appliance new experience, timely study and establish alternative in policy" "the energy conservation environmental protection product consumption support policy". Saying, specific policy at present the ministry of commerce and related ministries are research, new stimulus policy will and energy conservation and environmental protection and new consumption mode combined.
And as the ministry of commerce of the ministry of commerce think-tank institutions institute, also undertake the corresponding subject research. 21 "issued by the report shows, in 2012 China's expanding consumer policy basic direction, is to keep consumption policy has expanded in the continuity and stability, and on the basis of the policy support direction, support means and support the range of moderate and innovation, also will be paying more attention to the macroeconomic regulation and control policy and expand consumption policy coordination between.
"This year's expanding consumer policies exist certain innovation space." ZhaoPing said, may the policy innovation space shown in two aspects: one is the new expanding consumer policy and not as badly as broad spectrum sex to support some kind of products, may object to support green, energy conservation and environmental protection etc constraint index. 2 it is expanding consumer policy could expand the scope of industry support, conform with the consumption structure upgrade big trend, furniture, construction and decoration materials commodities, and domestic, endowment, mass catering service consumption to expand into the consumption policy support range.
The specific terms, the energy conservation, environmental protection, the independent brand, furniture decorate building materials and services in the market, or will have policies to encourage. "Green, low carbon, the energy conservation, the environmental protection is' 1025 'a big development direction, so in the consumption field about these products are more likely to gain the recognition of the related department." ZhaoPing in the conference said.
And for the cause of hot debate after in high-end consumer goods market consumption backflow of problems, the report suggest, 2012 new expanding consumer policy, can consider in the tax-free, tax rebates, interest and so on exploring appropriate, for countries to support key of goods and services, can consider to consumption tax for the first back to take on the consumption of loan, can consider the way through earnings and expand consumer demand.
"Considering this year the positive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy influence expected this year, expanding consumer policy always fundamental key is to keep the original will expand consumer policy continuity." The report said, the proposal to set up the long-term mechanism of spending growth, fundamentally relieve expanding consumer purchasing power restriction, and consumer "money can't buy, not willing to spend money, money can't buy" system and institutional constraints.
Thy billows points out, stimulating consumption should not only continue to old change the new policy, still should promote the development of Internet consumption, consumption and other more convenience people naturally consumption policy. He also pointed out that in the consumption policy besides, establish a good consumption environment, enhance the consumption of the industry to provide strength, improve the quality of reproduction consumption, is also stimulate consumption another way.
LiangHuanLei suggest, this year can highlight building materials, household and other areas of spending to cater to ensure room, and the project such as rent hot forward, in the short term to stimulate consumption can have certain effect. At the same time, can reduce the burden of taxes, make the residents directly or indirectly benefit. But he also said, "long-term mechanism based on promoting the consumption or raise the income level and increase the security, but this needs to be slowly. In the short term, must realize the measures to promote consumption to receive certain effect, but not in the long run."
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